Do not believe the commentators the US election is by no means a forgone conclusion.
While the polls suggest a Biden victory, let us not forget that polling consistently showed in the run-up to the last election, Hilary Clinton would end up occupying 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Can History repeat itself and will Trump defy the odds and the commentariat?
Instead of obsessing about National Polling, we should instead look at state polls, which are likely to be better indicators of how the electoral college may vote.
States such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia, traditionally Republican, are currently looking shaky for President Trump. There are two types of Trump voter, one overt in their support for him, the other covert, and it is the latter that may decide the election.
The enthusiasm factor is with the President, not his challenger despite the challenger leading many opinion polls. The selection of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party running mate is supposedly meant to energise the base amongst African American voters, and potentially women who think it is time to finally ‘shatter the glass ceiling’.
But the reality is, Vice Presidential candidates do very little to change voters minds or ultimately to encourage people to actually vote. They are generally there to harden up the base of support for the respective party. History is littered with examples of candidates choosing a running mate ignoring whatever animosity may exist between the two, such as John F Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, but one saw the other as necessary to his election chances to ensure the Southern Democratic voter (yes, there was such a thing!) stayed loyal.
Trump is generally seen by voters as the best candidate to handle the US economy after the Coronavirus Crisis. Will this promise of a ‘YUGE’ economic comeback save his re-election campaign? Or will Biden stroll to victory?
If Biden fails to take the White House, the Democrats will ultimately undertake another bout of contemplation. The failure of another moderate could perhaps signal a shift to the left and fully embrace the policies of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
If Trump loses, then the Republicans will have to consider how to proceed. There is already talk about who will come after Trump, win or lose. The next challenge for the Republicans will be to find someone who can win support from both the traditional GOP base and the new so-called ‘Trumpian’ Republicans for the US Election in 2024.
In time we will find out whether Trump can defy the odds and retain the Presidency.